This page documents every specific prediction made at Rhodes Research, with the date the prediction was made, the resolution criteria specified in advance, and the result — including misses. A prediction without resolution criteria is an opinion. A forecasting record without misses is advocacy. This page is neither. It is updated as predictions resolve.
The distinction between correct result and correct reasoning is noted where observable. Getting an outcome right for the wrong mechanism is not a successful prediction — it is a partial one, and is scored accordingly.
Prediction 1
Xi Visit Media Framing
Date made: July 29, 2026 · Resolution date: September 27, 2026
The Prediction
Whatever emerges from the Xi Jinping Washington visit, coverage will split along predictable lines, with each outlet selecting the true fact that best serves the story it had already decided to tell. The split will track institutional proximity to each government's messaging apparatus rather than simple ideological lean — a refinement established in the August 19 jobs report analysis.
Resolution Criteria
Coverage splits between outlets emphasizing agreement and cooperation versus outlets emphasizing what was not conceded. The split tracks institutional proximity to each government's messaging apparatus as the primary variable, not ideological lean. Confirmed if proximity predicts framing better than ideology. Disconfirmed if coverage converges regardless of outlet proximity.
Source
Originally stated in the blog post "Three Stories. One Operating System" (July 29, 2026). Restated verbatim in "What to Watch For" (September 20, 2026).
Status: PENDING
Prediction 2
Xi Visit Substance Signal
Date made: September 20, 2026 · Resolution date: September 27, 2026
The Prediction
The signal separating a meaningful visit from a communiqué visit is whether origin verification language, bilateral customs data sharing provisions, or specific transshipping enforcement mechanisms appear in the joint statement. If only AI safety framework language, renewed dialogue commitments, and aspirational trade principles appear with no enforcement provisions, the structural condition is unchanged at the public commitment level.
Resolution Criteria
CONFIRMED if: joint statement contains origin verification language, bilateral customs data sharing provisions, or specific enforcement mechanisms for transshipping routes.
DISCONFIRMED if: joint statement contains only AI safety framework language, renewed dialogue commitments, and aspirational trade principles with no enforcement provisions.
AMBIGUOUS if: language is neither clearly enforcement nor clearly aspirational. The ambiguous middle case will be named explicitly rather than forced into either category. Correct result with wrong mechanism — transshipping language appearing due to domestic US political pressure rather than genuine bilateral agreement — will be noted where observable.
Source
Stated in the blog post "What to Watch For" (September 20, 2026).
Status: PENDING
Prediction 3
August Jobs Report Coverage
Date made: August 7, 2026 · Resolution date: August 19, 2026
The Prediction
Coverage of the August 2026 jobs report would split along institutional proximity lines, with each outlet selecting the true fact that best served its pre-established frame.
Resolution Criteria
Split tracks messaging apparatus proximity as the primary variable.
Result
The split occurred but along a different axis than predicted: the primary divide was administration messaging apparatus versus all other outlets, rather than the institutional proximity variable as specified. The framing mechanism held but the axis of the split was wrong. Self-corrected publicly on August 19.
Honest Assessment
Correct result, partially wrong mechanism. The prediction identified that a split would occur — it did. The prediction misidentified the primary variable driving the split. This is not a successful prediction in full — it is a partial confirmation with a correction to the mechanism.
Status: PARTIALLY CONFIRMED
Prediction 4
Yuan Internationalization
Date made: Rhodes Research Triangulation paper, 2026 · Resolution date: December 31, 2027
The Prediction
Yuan internationalization will remain primarily performance over practice through 2027. A credibly scheduled capital account opening will not occur within the horizon. The renminbi will not achieve genuine reserve currency demand outside sanctioned-economy settlement within the horizon.
Resolution Criteria
DISCONFIRMED if: capital account opened on a credible published schedule with implementation steps; renminbi achieves genuine reserve currency demand outside sanctioned-economy settlement; SWIFT-tracked RMB share of global payments rises sustainably above 5 percent with clear upward trajectory.
CONFIRMED if: capital account remains closed or restricted; RMB share of global payments remains in the 2.7–3.5 percent range without establishing a clear upward trend through December 2027.
Confidence Level
75–80 percent probability of non-occurrence (performance over practice). This is a confidence estimate derived from five-channel framework convergence, not a calculated probability. It is stated as a confidence estimate, not a prediction of certainty.
Current Observable Status
RMB share of SWIFT-tracked global payments at approximately 3.10 percent as of mid-2026. Capital account remains restricted. No credible capital account opening schedule has been published. Direction of travel consistent with prediction.
Status: PENDING
Forecasting record last updated: September 14, 2026